Technology Forecast Cloudy??

Without going point by point through the issues raised in this article, I think there are some considerations that may be left out:
Cloudy Forecast for Information Technology
While Drake is surely correct that technology developments are similar to the historical development of electricity, he misses the fact that it was many years after the development of electricity before the technology found its most productive uses. There are some current developments in IT (discussed on this blog, by InformationWeek’s GlobalCIO Initiative, and others) that suggest that business has been more concerned with efficiency and productivty than information and strategy. Strategic applications of IT have escaped all but the most forward-thinking companies.
Drake’s statement, “However, with advances in computing the reverse is true, and jobs are being eliminated as companies streamline their operations.” Is true, but omits the issue raised by MegaTrends and MegaTrends 2000 that with the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation in the next few decades, the workforce MUST shrink, or find a new source of labor. Immigration can provide some of this labor, but developing countries in the midst of their own industrial revolution will find that they need this labor at home. Simply put, our economy to date has been based on the idea that the workforce will grow, but current birthrates simply cannot support growth in the number of employees.
Here’s the issue in a nutshell: New technology has driven much of the growth in the IT sector over the last few decades; the recession has created new demands that businesses drive technology innovation with strategy.
IT will change, but strategic IT applications will be SLOW (in Internet time) to migrate into the cloud. Business need to think strategic, not technology.